Archive 2013
Making better real asset decisions and avoiding common errors: The role of valuation
Workshop 04-06 October 2013, University of Alberta, Edmonton
Dr. Laughton ran a short public workshop at the University of Alberta during the weekend of 04-06 October 2013:
Friday 1830-2130 and Saturday-Sunday 0900-1700.
The announcement is available in pdf - here.
The role of asset valuation in assessing exploration in extractive industries
15th Annual Conference of the International Association for Mathematical Geosciences
02-06 September 2013, Madrid
Dr. Laughton was asked to give a talk in a session on 04 September 2013 on "New Developments in Oil and Gas Discovery Modeling".
The abstract is as follows.
Asset value is an important metric in commercial decision-making. Two developments in valuation technique over the last four decades can help organisations to reduce unnecessary biases in value estimates and to broaden their applicability. This is of particular potential importance for improving the assessment of exploration and appraisal activities in extractive industries.
First, dynamic probabilistic models of commercial uncertainty combined with derivative asset valuation methods allow organisations to tune the effects of uncertainty on any particular asset value to reflect the real structure of the uncertainty involved. This ability, if used well, can help to lessen some of the biases imbedded in the current ”one discount rate fits all” valuation practice. This is particularly important at the exploration stage of the asset life cycle for assets in extractive industries because of the different way in which markets assess general commercial uncertainties (such as commodity prices) and asset-level geological uncertainty.
Second, increasingly efficient decision tree optimisation methods have recently dramatically broadened the scope for formal analysis of commercial situations where we must examine contingent decisions that take place over time. Because all exploration decisions are sequential and contingent, this is an important enhancement of the toolkit for assessing complex exploration activities.
Information about the meeting is available - here.
Please contact us if you have any questions or comments.
Making better real asset decisions and avoiding common errors: The role of valuation
Workshop 04-05 February 2013, Australian School for Petroleum, Adelaide
Workshop 07-08 February 2013, Amec Offices, Perth, Australia
Dr. Laughton ran a short public workshop at the Australian School for Petroleum in Adelaide on 04-05 February 2013.
He ran the same workshop in Perth on 07-08 February 2013. Amec kindly provided a room at their Perth offices.
The text of the cover letter for the Adelaide worksop announcement sent out by the Director of the School for Petroleum, Prof. Steve Begg, is available in pdf - here.
The announcement for the Adelaide workshop is available in pdf - here.
The announcement for the Perth workshop is available in pdf - here.
Exploration and appraisal decisions in extractive industries: The role of the value metric
06 February 2013, The Centre for Exploration Targeting, Perth, Australia
While in Perth, on the afternoon of 06 February 2013, Dr. Laughton gave two 1-hour talks.
The first was at the Centre for Exploration Targeting at 1400
The abstract is as follows.
Asset value is an important metric in commercial decision-making. Dr. Laughton will show how the approximations that go into making value estimates place limits on their role in the decision process. This is particularly important at the exploration stage of the asset life cycle because of the different way in which markets assess general commercial uncertainties (such as commodity prices) and asset-level geological uncertainty.
He will then examine two developments in valuation technique over the last four decades that organisations can use to reduce unnecessary biases in value estimates and to broaden their applicability.
First, dynamic probabilistic models of commercial uncertainty combined with derivative asset valuation methods allow organisations to tune the effects of uncertainty on any particular asset value to reflect the real structure of the uncertainty involved. Dr. Laughton shows how this ability, if used well, can help to lessen some of the biases imbedded in the current ”one discount rate fits all” valuation practice, focusing on biases in the assessment of exploration activities.
Second, increasingly efficient decision tree optimisation methods have recently dramatically broadened the scope for formal analysis of commercial situations where we must examine contingent decisions that take place over time. Because all exploration decisions are sequential and contingent, this is an important enhancement of the toolkit for assessing complex exploration activities.
Better valuation => better asset decisions=>more company value?
06 February 2013, The Western Australia Chapter of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, Perth
While in Perth, on the afternoon of 06 February 2013, Dr. Laughton gave two 1-hour talks.
The second was for the Western Australia Chapter of the Society of Petroleum Engineers at 1630 at the Woodside Auditorium.
The abstract is as follows.
Asset value is an important metric in commercial decision-making. Dr. Laughton will show how the approximations that go into making value estimates place limits on their role in the decision process.
He will then examine two developments in valuation technique from the last four decades that organisations can use to reduce unnecessary biases in value estimates and to broaden their applicability.
First, dynamic models of commercial uncertainty combined with derivative asset valuation methods allow organisations to tune the effects of uncertainty on any particular asset value to reflect the real structure of the uncertainty involved. Dr. Laughton shows how this ability, if used well, can lead to better decisions by eliminating some biases imbedded in current ”one discount rate fits all” valuation practices, including a bias against most long-lived assets.
Second, new efficient decision tree analysis methods have dramatically broadened the scope for formal analysis of commercial situations such as phased developments.
The session will conclude with a brief discussion of the organisational issues involved in managing a change in valuation practice.
Making better real asset decisions and avoiding common errors: The role of valuation
Workshop 15-17 March 2013, University of Alberta, Edmonton
Dr. Laughton ran a short public workshop at the University of Alberta for the weekend of 15-17 March 2013:
Friday 1830-2130 and Saturday-Sunday 0900-1700.
The announcement is available in pdf - here.
